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Bunching Effect

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10:53 pm
October 30, 2009


Joe

Guest

Post edited 5:55 am – October 31, 2009 by Joe


How important is the bunching effect in poker? Let's say you are dealt pocket sixes in the small blind at a nine handed table and everyone folds to you. With 8 other players at the table, the probability that someone was dealt cards that had you dominated is something like 27%  If everyone folds to you, does this mean the probability the big blind has you dominated is now less (roughly 4%)?  I'm aware of the whole stealing thing, but in this case I'm more interested in card removal effects and how domination stats change…

8:16 pm
October 31, 2009


Matt Flynn

Admin

posts 115

in general you can ignore card bunching.  this is because the random hands that are folded tend to have a fairly random distribution of cards.  yes, eight players folding mean there's a slightly higher percentage of big cards in the deck, on average, but it shouldn't be much of an effect.

unless….

if, say all seven players in front of you would play any ace, then when they all fold and you do not have an ace in the small blind, there are four aces left in 36 cards the big blind could have.  compare this to 4 in 50 for completely random foldedhands.  that's still not that big a difference, even when you gimmick the hands to maximize bunching effects.

matt

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