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4:16 pm
July 16, 2009
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Sh0e
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In a few spots throughout the book, the authors talk about your estimating of your postflop edge in a specific hand example. This is a concept that I am very hazy on:
(1) I don't think I'm especially strong postflop; I think I'm at least decent (e.g. AF 2.92, A% 32.7 since starting book  ), I am a (>10bb/100) winning reg at NL50 FWIW
(2) it seems to me that there are sooo many situations… how can you generically say you play better than any other TAG, when most of the time you only get a snapshot of how that player plays in specific instances…
I mean, I can say, "I'll call cold here, cuz I can outplay this guy postflop." Which honestly, unless the player is very apparently weak (i.e. HEM stats), I don't know. I certainly will look at the guy's stats, and say… I can't call here, cuz he'll CB & I'll have to fold, etc.
But at NL100 (the nut I'm currently trying to crack), you'll generally find yourself sitting with 3-4 TAG, 2-3 of them regs, and 1 bad player. Now, unless the TAG has an obviously weak stat (e.g. 52% CB), how can you accurately assess your postflop skill? Are there specific numbers we can look at?
Is it simply that, if a player on your HUD has (25/21/3+, 30-ish Steal, 3B's 9%, CB's 78% of the time, etc.) that you can assume no postflop edge? That's the only way I can see assessing postflop sklls on the fly (of multi-tabling), unless again, the player's stats show some particular weak points. Most TAG regs don't seem to have such apparent weaknesses, and yet (at NL100 & up), a large portion of your winnings (I'm assuming) come from beating the regs (I tend to think most of my NL50 winnings come from weak players, and effective table selection; not outplaying folks.)
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4:22 am
July 17, 2009
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Rocketfingers
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Post edited 11:37 am – July 17, 2009 by Rocketfingers
Everybody has weakneses post flop, even the very best players. You only have to find those mistakes and lock on your target. Lets take the player you outlined “25/21/3+, 30-ish Steal, 3B's 9%, CB's 78% of the time”. Lets say he opens the button (with a range of 25%) and you are in the big blind and you call with 56s to outplay him postflop. The flop comes Ks 9d 4c realize that he c-bets nearly 80% of his pre-flop hands while he only flops TPGK and better about 25% of the time and 20% of the time he has nothing, his range is unbalanced, you can expoilt it by playing back, either chk-raising the flop or floating ( I think chk-raising is better out of pos). This is only one example where you can generate edge over a TAG, you can find a lot of unbalanced lines in their strategy. Also value betting thin against a player like that is a way to crush them and don't use a simple valu betting strategy mix it up for example my favourite line: you have AK flop K52 rainbow, I c-bet just like every flop, they know that but they apply a passive strategy and they call, turn comes a J, I check behind like if I would miss the flop and give up on the turn, and usually they want a showdown with their weak hand and check, then I come out for pot and they insta call my “obvious” bluff 
One more thing to keep in mind is TAGs usually apply a good strategy against bad opponents and this strategy consits a lot of unbalanced lines simply because these lines exploits the bad opponents the most but they became exploitable too.
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5:19 am
July 17, 2009
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styx2000
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I like the question and im often wondering the same thing. I think many players overestimate their postflop skills versus fish in 100BB games. It gets much more apparent in deep stacked live games where fish make big mistakes in huge pots.
I am a little bit on the laggy side and it seems to me some players play back at me a lot and some dont at all – i feel i have an edge against the players who dont play back (i.e. fold a lot to cbets/2nd barrels/bluffing scare cards).
Also you could check on how many tables your opponents are playing, if its 8 or more they will likely not be paying that much attention and play super tricky.
The biggest factor for me is when i see somebody making something which i consider a big mistake, especially if that happens more than once. Of course that's not a sure thing because he might have had some clever plan that you didnt follow sometimes. Also it's very hard to see how many big mistake oneself is making, you usually dont see most mistakes in your own play.
One more thing to keep in mind is TAGs usually apply a good strategy against bad opponents and this strategy consits a lot of unbalanced lines simply because these lines exploits the bad opponents the most but they became exploitable too.
I agree, one example that often comes up is a reg who isolates a limper, you can often 3bet him because he isolates with a wide range and the limper will usually not cold call.
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1:18 pm
July 17, 2009
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Sh0e
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Rocketfingers said:
Post edited 4:37 am – July 17, 2009 by Rocketfingers
Everybody has weakneses post flop, even the very best players. You only have to find those mistakes and lock on your target. Lets take the player you outlined “25/21/3+, 30-ish Steal, 3B's 9%, CB's 78% of the time”. Lets say he opens the button (with a range of 25%) and you are in the big blind and you call with 56s to outplay him postflop. The flop comes Ks 9d 4c realize that he c-bets nearly 80% of his pre-flop hands while he only flops TPGK and better about 25% of the time and 20% of the time he has nothing, his range is unbalanced, you can expoilt it by playing back, either chk-raising the flop or floating ( I think chk-raising is better out of pos). This is only one example where you can generate edge over a TAG, you can find a lot of unbalanced lines in their strategy. Also value betting thin against a player like that is a way to crush them and don't use a simple valu betting strategy mix it up for example my favourite line: you have AK flop K52 rainbow, I c-bet just like every flop, they know that but they apply a passive strategy and they call, turn comes a J, I check behind like if I would miss the flop and give up on the turn, and usually they want a showdown with their weak hand and check, then I come out for pot and they insta call my “obvious” bluff 
One more thing to keep in mind is TAGs usually apply a good strategy against bad opponents and this strategy consits a lot of unbalanced lines simply because these lines exploits the bad opponents the most but they became exploitable too.
Nice post, but… I don't understand 
(1) When you say (above), "…his range is unbalanced", do you mean that he's betting air more than he is betting a good hand (TP)?
(2) How can you apply that to a general (postflop) strategy when you are talking "edge"? The player we speak of (above, and talking very generally) has a relatively unexploitable style… and as you say, we all have weaknesses in our games. When you make a play like the one you apply above, it seems to me that it's just a case of timing (i.e. making a CR of float at the opportune time).
Where is the "edge"?
*At this point, I deleted a bunch of stuff. I typed a whole bunch more, but as I noodle with this thought in my head as I type, I think I'm kinda understang… Though–more commentary would be helpful!
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3:07 pm
July 17, 2009
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Rocketfingers
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Nice post, but… I don't understand
(1) When you say (above), “…his range is unbalanced“, do you mean that he's betting air more than he is betting a good hand (TP)?
I don't mean exactly air, I mean hands that can't call a check raise or a float.
(2) How can you apply that to a general (postflop) strategy when you are talking “edge”? The player we speak of (above, and talking very generally) has a relatively unexploitable style… and as you say, we all have weaknesses in our games. When you make a play like the one you apply above, it seems to me that it's just a case of timing (i.e. making a CR of float at the opportune time).
Where is the “edge”?
*At this point, I deleted a bunch of stuff. I typed a whole bunch more, but as I noodle with this thought in my head as I type, I think I'm kinda understang… Though–more commentary would be helpful!
Ok lets say you play heads up with a guy who plays a theoretically perfect game (its hard to explain but say you can't exploit this strategy its "perfect") if you play this strategy too you are break even or if you play in a casino you loose the amount of rake. But nobody can play like that and nobody should. You should plan your strategy to exploit others strategy. Lets say you play in a very tight 1/2 game and you open in SB BT and Cutoff 100% of your hands b/c its profitable their pre-flop strategy is very tight and your counter strategy is stealing and this generates an edge over your opponents. Like the strategy I outlined above, we countered our opponents aggressive c-bet strategy by chk-raiseing and floating. Note that if he would play a game theoretically perfect game we couldn't counter his strategy. He differed from the heoretically perfect game and I used this against him. One more important point is everybody is exploitable who differs from the game theoreticaly perfect game. You are right in a way its timeing, you shouldn't play back every time, find the good spots to exploit your opponents. Say the button opens you call in BB and you flop weak you check he bets you fold this heappens 4 times in a row, now its very likely he c-bets very weak hands and air so you should fight back and plan to play back at him, and this is in your general post-flop strategy from that point you plan to play back at him. I hope I made my self clear if not just ask.
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7:53 am
July 20, 2009
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Maarten
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Rocketfingers: I think you are overestimating his exploitability.
Say it was opened for $4 in a $2 pot (blinds). He cbets $8 into the $10 flop. You called preflop with two blank cards to c/r to $25 on the flop as a bluff (your cards are blank).
From a preflop perspective you risk $29 (4 + 25) to win $14 (10-4 + 8). So your opponent can cbet and give up about 2/3 times for your preflop decision to be 0EV.
Obviously you don't get two blank cards and have some good flops. On the other hand you get some bad flops as well where you don't want to bluff. Anyways, when you have a decision preflop with a plan for later streets you need to consider the costs you are going to make to get to that point.
Another example that might illustrate this more clearly: Your opponent is exploitable on the river. He always makes a $100 pot sized bet, but only has the nuts 55% of the time. The other times he has air. Easy call with your bluffcatcher if you played up to here. With an EV of $200 * 0.45 – $100 * 0.55 = $35.
From a preflop perspective though, you will put in $150 that you'll lose 55% of the time and he will put in the same amount of $150 that you will win 45% of the time for an EV of -$15. Preflop you can't call to take this line profitably, because the costs of getting in this profitable spot are not offset by the profit itself.
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11:18 am
July 20, 2009
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Rocketfingers
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You are right in a way. But notice that in the example you are in the blinds, so u r in a -EV position and if you can turn this out to be break even in some situations then you did a good job, and if you play back at a player like this there is a chance he will back off a bit and tighten up against you and this can earn you a lot of money (or save). Your example is good and have a lot of a meant, and ofcourse you shouldn't lock on every weakness and pound on it in every oppurtunity but if a guy gets really out of the line you have to make a stand. The more he gets out of the line the more you can.
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