Caldrow said:
From a $100 deepstack donkament on Stars.
Blinds: 50/100
I have 6800 (others cover) and make it 300 UTG with TsTh.
The SB and BB call.
The BB had been playing very snug while the rest of the table had been aggressive/playback happy.
Flop: 8c8d7d
Pot: 900
The SB checks, the BB bets 500, I call, and the SB folds.
Turn: 8c8d7d(4s)
Pot: 1900
BB checks, I bet 1200, he calls.
River: 8c8d7d4s(5s)
Pot: 4300
BB bets 2500.
Thoughts on the flop call vs. raising/calling it off?
Turn bet size?
River?
To me this is a classic "way ahead or way behind" situation. The fact the BB did not 3 bet preflop, makes me think he is not super strong, but he could be slowplaying a monster (but I doubt he would slowplay out of position if he is a decent TAG player)
He just flat called preflop, so his range is still pretty wide at this point. On the flop, his bet could be trip 8's or a maybe flush/str8 draw, or maybe he has a 7. I would not put him on an overpair like JJ-AA at this point, because I'm thinking he would have either 3 bet preflop, or possibly checkraised the flop with those strong hands. He did neither.
Your flop call is fine since you have position, but sometimes you may want to consider a flop reraise here. This forces the BB to define his hand right away. If you reraise his $500 flop bet, he probably folds any drawing hands, maybe even a 7. If he calls or shoves your flop reraise, he probably has a strong hand like A8 for trips or maybe JJ, and you can let the hand go.
Since you flat called the flop, his range is still wide and could include a hand like A7, a drawing hand, or a monster like an overpair, trip 8's, or even 87 for a full boat. His turn check is peculiar. Unless he is slowplaying, which I doubt on a draw heavy board out of position. I would put him on some kind of 7 or drawing hand still. So I like your turn bet there, but then his call should put you on major alert.
His riverbet of more than half the pot, out of position, shows some strength. I would probably end up folding there, especially if you say he had been playing tight. There are just too many hands that beat your 10's. Also a river reraise all in from your would probably not work as he would be priced in to call you, and your showdown equity is ok, but not great against his range. I would let it go. If he is bluffing, it is a very good bluff. There will be better spots to risk your stack in my opinion. Did you end up folding to his river bet?