Current User: Guest Login
Please consider registering


Lost Your Password?

Search Forums:


 






Wildcard Usage:
*    matches any number of characters
%    matches exactly one character

Hand example from the book

Add a New Topic Reply to Post
UserPost

2:04 pm
December 21, 2010


Jolly Rancher

Member

posts 3

I have a few questions directly from SSNLHE.

(FYI, my intention is not to point what I think are ‘mistakes’,
but rather as I work through each of the hand examples I try to understand the details
of the description associated with that example.  There are a couple that I am not
comprehending.)

I’m trying to understand the best spot for a big
overbet.  (So far the spots I have picked
I only win a little or lose a lot).

On page 274, there is the example with two black K’s.  Board is Q93 all hearts.  Pot is $69 with $170 behind.  Villian has 7h7s.  The book says ‘with 11 outs and two cards to
come it has more than enough equity to get all-in.”

According to poker stove, villain has 42% equity against the
KK.  Pots odds are $170 / $409 = 41%.

Seems like instead
even money to call an all-in
?  Or are
you thinking villain should LEAD the all-in and realize the additional fold
equity?

 

Do I have this wrong?

Thanks!   -Bob

8:37 pm
February 12, 2011


ThreeSigma

New Member

posts 2

I found this example on page 331 (Overbetting the Flop). When I stove (player 1) KsKc, (player 2) 7h7s and the board Qh9h3h, I get the following equities ( 11 outs times 4 ~ 44%)

 

Player 1 has 58% equity

Player 2 has  42% equity

I think the point of the example was that you have good showdown equity, and many players will call a push with a pair and flush draw.

 

What hands did yo use in your stove model?

12:09 pm
February 13, 2011


ThreeSigma

New Member

posts 2

I misinterprted your post and thought you had player 1 and player 2 reversed. To make a point, the example in the book is a little contrived in that we know both player's cards.

 

I worked backwards with stove a little to try to understand this trying various ranges for villain. If he calls the preflop 3 bet with the top 4% of hands (99+, AQs+ and AKo), he is a 2:1 dog.

 

In a real game, I would discount the 6 combos of AA to about 2 (one pair has Ah) because most players 4 bet pre. Therefore his range changes slightly to AcAh, AdAs, KK-99,AQs+,AKo and he is a 3:1 dog.

 

When the flop comes Qh, 9H, 3h he improves to even. The only made flush in this  (arbitrary) range is AhKh. Now, if you shove, I think he folds his AKo, AKs non-heart, pairs without a heart below QQ. This makes him a 1.25:1 favorite.

(AcAh,AcAs,KK,QcQd,QcQs,QdQs,JcJh,JdJh,JhJs,TcTh,TdTh,ThTs,9c9h,9d9h,9h9s,AhKh,AQs)

 

If instead, you check and he shoves, you must call with your 44% equity, so it is better to shove yourself and take advantage of any fold equity.

 

All this just drives home the point that a 2.5 SPR and an overpair commits you and a shove is often a good play. 

 

If the flop had been Ah, 9h, 3h is a shove still +ev? His range is different because the Qh is now a Ah. There are fewer AKo and more AQs in his range, but he is now a 1.25:1 favorite with a few ties. Now a shove doesn't work because only the pocket pairs below KK fold leaving you a 10:1 dog. 

Reply to Post

Reply to Topic:
Hand example from the book

Guest Name (Required):

Guest Email (Required):

Smileys
Confused Cool Cry Embarassed Frown Kiss Laugh Smile Surprised Wink Yell
Post New Reply

Guest URL (required)

Math Required!
What is the sum of:
5 + 10
   


About the Small Stakes No-Limit Hold'em Forum

Most Users Ever Online: 18

Currently Online:
8 Guests

Currently Browsing this Topic:
1 Guest

Forum Stats:

Groups: 1
Forums: 3
Topics: 345
Posts: 1920

Membership:

There are 627 Members
There have been 245 Guests

There are 3 Admins

Top Posters:

mullethaiku – 96
Hitman – 62
JJS – 48
Pete – 46
jz1014 – 32
Tackleberry – 29

Recent New Members: paul perez, petervito, miketuscan, halden, Rika, RR

Administrators: Matt Flynn (115 Posts), Ed Miller (112 Posts), Sunny Mehta (67 Posts)