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8:57 am
November 12, 2009
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mullethaiku
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samiam said:
mullethaiku said:
Your statements seem very absolute samiam. Are you saying, nobody is making $$ at this? I beg to differ. I personally am a very slight winning player (just over break even now, but I didn;'t start playing serious until March '09) and I know a few friends who make a nice full time living online.
That is not what I'm saying at all. People can and do definitely have winning streaks. All they are, however, are streaks. Those winning streaks are negated by the losing streaks and the player simply pays the rake to the casino. People fall victim to the idea that they actually have an edge, when in fact they just got lucky.
If you are good player, Poker does allow more of a player "edge" than most casino games. Yet I will agree it is still a small edge. The old school pros seemed to have a much bigger edge before the Moneymaker/onlline boom. But the tradeoff back then was less players, and thus less $$$ and less fish. There are many more players now, and while some are definitely good, there are still plenty of casual players,fish, and maniacs to feast on.
Your idea that "players just trade the money back and forth" is true to a degree for the majority of losing players. However, winning players have a slight edge over these players, which over the long run will show a nice profit.
When I say "small edge" for winning players, I mean the little steps they take to separate themselves from losing players. For example:
Playing more hands. Analyzing more of your hands. Make proper adjustments to your game. Study hard and learn from the best poker literature (multiple reads with notes, etc.) Pick the right games to play (stick to the game that is most profitable for you). Pick the right stakes. Be properly bankrolled. Avoid tilt. Observe your opponents when not in a hand.(seems obvious, but many don't do it). Set up a good rakeback. Managing your bankroll properly (this one is HUGE if you want to make $$, and many otherwise great players suck at it) etc. etc.
You would be amazed on how many VERY good poker players suck badly at one or more of the things I just mentioned. These are the "edges" they are losing out on, thus leading most (but not all) of them to inevitably losing longterm.
It is not easy, but you can do it.
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10:15 am
November 12, 2009
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samiam
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Okay, first off…NO casino game offers an edge to the player. The opposite, however, is exactly what the casinos want you to think. That is why people keep coming back. Maybe blackjack, roulette and video poker have lost some popularity but online poker has more than made up for it. Casinos stay in business and stay lucrative because people have the same mentality that you exhibit in your post: "Gee, I know people win at this. I'm just as able to learn this as the next guy. I just have to beef up my game. I know, I will play more hands, analyze everything with my super software. I will buy 10 more poker books for Christmas this year. I will hire a poker coach. I will buy that super duper ultra poker champion e-course I've been hearing about…" And the list goes on.
Online poker is just like any other casino game. Your best chance of winning is in the short run. If you are fortunate enough to win, get up and leave. Or you can stay and watch the profits disappear while the casino collects the rake.
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10:44 am
November 12, 2009
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JJS
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samiam said:
Okay, first off…NO casino game offers an edge to the player.
If by "casino game" you mean a game where players wager against the casino, then of course you are correct. No casino manager would be foolish enough to wager against players and then give them an edge.
What you are missing is that poker is not a casino game by this definition. Players do not wager against the casino, they wager against each other. The casino just provides the venue where the players get together, and the rake is the fee for providing this service.
There are plenty of skill levels in poker. Skilled players can have a huge advantage over recreational players, not just a small one. So the question is, is this skill advantage enough to beat the rake? That depends on the rake structure. If you are trying to make money, part of the idea is to avoid games where the rake is too high.
All that being said, it is also true that the number of players that have this skill is less than the number who think they have it. A lot of players run good just by luck, think they are have the edge, but they find out later that they don't. Vegas is full of people who ruined their lives this way.
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1:44 pm
November 12, 2009
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mullethaiku
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samiam said:
Okay, first off…NO casino game offers an edge to the player. The opposite, however, is exactly what the casinos want you to think. That is why people keep coming back. Maybe blackjack, roulette and video poker have lost some popularity but online poker has more than made up for it. Casinos stay in business and stay lucrative because people have the same mentality that you exhibit in your post: "Gee, I know people win at this. I'm just as able to learn this as the next guy. I just have to beef up my game. I know, I will play more hands, analyze everything with my super software. I will buy 10 more poker books for Christmas this year. I will hire a poker coach. I will buy that super duper ultra poker champion e-course I've been hearing about…" And the list goes on.
Online poker is just like any other casino game. Your best chance of winning is in the short run. If you are fortunate enough to win, get up and leave. Or you can stay and watch the profits disappear while the casino collects the rake.
By "player edge" in poker, I meant your edge over weaker poker players, which can be bigger than the casino rake. Again samiam,your blanket statements are too absolute. You act as if nobody can make any $$ profit from poker longterm? That is simply not true.
For example, there are more people who make a good living from poker worldwide than probably any professional sport by far. (I have heard in various surveys that there are roughly a few hundred thousand + legit poker pros making a decent living worldwide)
So in a similar way, it's kinda like saying "nobody has a real chance to play pro baseball for a living" While, the odds of being a big league baseball are very slim, it is not impossible, and the ones who make it, make very good living.
Your odds of being a pro poker player, or at least making decent profit is difficult, but is still offers much better odds than playing any other sport/game professionally.
So given your point of view, are the hundreds of top level pro poker players who are millionaire's just the luckiest human beings on planet Earth?  Annointed by God? 
The problem I have with your logic is you almost equate the highly strategic, fascinating, multilayered, intellectual game of poker with playing the lottery.
**as a side note, if you are 100% result oriented, and strictly driven by money in the 1st palce, then poker may not be for you anyway. I enjoy the game of poker itself. It's complexity is intriguing to me. Much like the games of golf or chess, poker is very difficult to master, that is the appeal. Not my BB/100.
Before the WSOP main event this year, Phil Ivey was asked something like "You're widely considered the best poker player in the world, you have millions of dollars, a private jet, and 5 WSOP bracelets. What possibly is driving you to keep playing poker every day?" He replied "I just still enjoy playing poker, I still learn something about the game and myself every time I sit down at the table, I still have so much to learn, that is the beauty of the game, it is always evolving"
it sounds corny, but that is why you should play. Otherwise it can become more of a grind than your crappy day job.
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3:53 pm
November 12, 2009
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samiam
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**as a side note, if you are 100% result oriented, and strictly driven by money in the 1st palce, then poker may not be for you anyway. I enjoy the game of poker itself. It's complexity is intriguing to me. Much like the games of golf or chess, poker is very difficult to master, that is the appeal. Not my BB/100.
This is the only intelligent thing you've said. Enjoying playing poker is possible. Having an edge is not.
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5:05 pm
November 12, 2009
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JJS
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Sh0e said:
But I don't know how to analyze these things (in HEM)… I mean step-by-step. Forgive me for sounding dense/maybe a bit lazy. Maybe what I need is to investigate in the Study Group. Like I said, there is just an infinite forest of information from which to study: Line Balance, Fold/Showdown Equity, SPR, Hand Ranges, etc. And the book just scrapes the surfaces of it all.
Sh0e – you are the only person in this thread that is bringing up a worthwhile subject, and I feel bad that your legitimate question is being ignored because the thread is being hijacked by trolls.
To be honest, I don't really think I could give you the help you need. It sounds like you need a coach. You shouldn't need very much, just someone to show you how to get started using HEM and perhaps other tools to help analyze your game. Getting started in any new endeavor is always the hardest part.
Are you a member of Stoxpoker? Ed recommends it and I think you should be able to find someone over there who can help you.
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7:30 am
November 13, 2009
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mullethaiku
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samiam said:
**as a side note, if you are 100% result oriented, and strictly driven by money in the 1st palce, then poker may not be for you anyway. I enjoy the game of poker itself. It's complexity is intriguing to me. Much like the games of golf or chess, poker is very difficult to master, that is the appeal. Not my BB/100.
This is the only intelligent thing you've said. Enjoying playing poker is possible. Having an edge is not.
The ONLY intelligent thing huh? So you are stating "nobody wins at poker" and "having an edge in poker is impossible" as absolute facts, and then insulting my intelligence?
So samiam, how then are there professional poker players who make a good living? Is it all a big scam formulated by casinos? Are they fakes? Are they just lucky? You haven't bothered to explain this yet….please enlighten us…
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7:48 am
November 13, 2009
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JJS
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mullet – please stop answering this troll, you are not going to convince him. He is just going to say yes, it is all just a scam, they are all fakes, and then he will require you to prove that it is not a scam before he will believe you – it's standard troll operating procedure, so just ignore him.
Let's try to help Sh0e instead – do you know of any Stoxpoker vids that will help him out, or any other place where he could find the coaching he is looking for?
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8:01 am
November 13, 2009
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Jamleeco
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SamIam,
There are several cirucmstances that can lead one to the conclusion that you have of winning anything is luck and eventually losing it back is luck. Partially that is true. Luck will balance out. If the skill of players is equal then there is no edge. This is true. And the edge you do not acknowledge is small. That small edge is where the profit comes from as the luck, as you have pointed out, eventually flatlines.
So , some of these circumstances: Your (I'm using the universal you/your, not you specifically. some of these used to apply to myself and at various times,now) understanding of the game is not advanced enough to recognize winning players' edge, you play in games that are too tough, the previous mentioned comments about bankroll/right game, when you are winning you get overconfident ,loose,sloppy and give it back in a big pot(not cause of luck but because you got yourself trapped in a -ev situation), or because of winning/losing you backoff of a +ev because of the swing, maybe a great situation for a bluff and you don't take it because last one an hour ago didnt work, you get mentally tired and you keep playing with reduced consentration or like me, reduced self-discipline, etc. ad infinitum.
I'll be stomping around the house because I played badly and my wife will say settle down, you'll win it back. And of course, I do settle down after a short vent, then I try and explain to her no, I wont win THAT money back, because that's impossilbe. I lost it because of bad play. Now like anyone I can be disheartened when you get those inevitable bad beats all bunched up and sometimes by the same player over and over, but I will win THAT money back, you're rigth. Because that was luck and by definition a weaker player. Which is what I try to explain to my wife, when you play really well, feel great and all, these bad beats, normal beats, little mistakes, are going to happen. You are going to lose often enough as it is, you can't be giving money away.
Poker is not easy money. I think a lot of wouldbe's won't admit to themselves that deep down they think that it is. It is a lot of hardwork- on strategy/math, game selection, courage at the right time, personl work (the hardest) on your self-discipline, focus, attitude, perservance, and the amount of time you are keeping all of these at optimal level. Of course, if you think poker money is easy, even deep down, then there is always a resentment when you don't put in enough off-table work, time at the tables, discover you don't have talent for the game or enough talent for the stakes you want to play, etc which leads to the sour grapes effect, If i can't make money playing poker, no one can.
I normally don't weigh in here, but you will not be affecting my winrate. I've been playing live before and after something happens I've had a guy say to me " You're probably one of those guys that thinks there is skill involved in this game, aren't you? " I can't reply quick enough " Are you kidding me, It is all luck ! See my stack of chips, I would have to win like this for 2 weeks straight just to get even. No man, I wish it wasn't luck because then I might have a chance of winning because my luck sucks. Yadda yadda
Poker is a very complex game. When you hear that it smacks of strategy alone. So, Winning at poker is very complex, and that involves a lot more than strategy. I don't have one skill that when I first learned it I didn't misapply it, go back after trying it, reread it , have the aha moment, try it again, it worked, again and didn't work until finally you truly understand when to apply it AND THEN it's not always going to work. And then you have to truly understand that concept. In this situation , which is perfect for this play, it's going to work X% amout of the time. So yeah, truly winning at poker, which means it's not because of the variance of luck you are talking about, it takes WORK and TIME. And for some more than others. No matter what the public schools are now teaching, we are not all equal.
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12:42 pm
November 13, 2009
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mullethaiku
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JJS said:
mullet – please stop answering this troll, you are not going to convince him. He is just going to say yes, it is all just a scam, they are all fakes, and then he will require you to prove that it is not a scam before he will believe you – it's standard troll operating procedure, so just ignore him.
Let's try to help Sh0e instead – do you know of any Stoxpoker vids that will help him out, or any other place where he could find the coaching he is looking for?
I think you are right JJS. I shouldn't waste my time. As for Sh0e's question about HEM/Analyzing your game, I'm not a member of stox or any training site right now, so I'm not sure if there are vids on this. I'm sure there are somewhere.
But in general I think it is a good idea to study your hands in HEM based on POSITION, You can use the edit function in the "hands" tabs to show your hands by any number of categories, but I think viewing the hands by position is most helpful (button, cutoff, UTG, etc.) You can edit it to be as general or specific as you like. It really plugged alot of leaks in my game. When you sort your hands by position, it really helps to clarify your leaks. (for example my UTG opening range was too wide, and my Small blind 3 bet range was too wide as well- I lnoticed I lost some big pots in these spots)
It also can be useful to sort the hands by large pots you have lost (you can sort by largest BB/$$ losses) It will not only plug some leaks you have playing big pots, it also can reinforce that sometimes you made the right decision, just suffered bad luck. This can really help to avoid any tilt on big losses because you played it correctly.
Also, if you have trouble with certain starting hands (small pairs, JJ, AQ offsuit, etc.) it can help to pull up all of those hands and go through them to see what is going wrong. They also have a "leaks" section in the "reports" that is decent.
Obviously it would be better to go through the hands with an objective 3rd party, like a poker coach, but if you are like me, you can't afford that 
Hope that helps a little. I'm sure you can get much more advanced with HEM. I just haven't had time to really explore the extent of it's features yet.
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8:58 pm
November 13, 2009
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Sh0e
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JJS said:
Sh0e – you are the only person in this thread that is bringing up a worthwhile subject, and I feel bad that your legitimate question is being ignored because the thread is being hijacked by trolls.
To be honest, I don't really think I could give you the help you need. It sounds like you need a coach. You shouldn't need very much, just someone to show you how to get started using HEM and perhaps other tools to help analyze your game. Getting started in any new endeavor is always the hardest part.
Are you a member of Stoxpoker? Ed recommends it and I think you should be able to find someone over there who can help you.
Thanks for looking out… yeah, I'm on stox. And it's helpful. And I know people tell you to analyze things like Position, specific hands, and such… but again, it's all daunting.
It's like reading a text as part of a class–what normally happens is the teacher assigns worksheets or problems, as a supplement to the reading. THAT would be really great. In this case (e.g. Balancing Your Lines), some clearly laid-out exercises on how to investigate that in your own DB. Or Barreling: exercises (in analyzing your DB) that will help you see barreling opportunities, etc.
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12:11 pm
November 14, 2009
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JJS
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Sh0e said:
yeah, I'm on stox. And it's helpful. And I know people tell you to analyze things like Position, specific hands, and such… but again, it's all daunting.
Whenever you are trying to learn a new thing, asking the right questions is at least 70% of the battle. Once you ask the right questions, the answers are usually fairly easy to find.
I think maybe you are approaching this backwards. Rather than ask "How can I apply barrelling", instead you should be asking "why do I lose the pots that I lose". Perhaps start out like mullet suggested, order your hands by pot size for the pots that you have lost, then start analyzing them from the biggest pot downwards. Post questions on stox's forums, or even on 2+2 (though on 2+2 you have to separate the wheat from the chaff as I'm sure you already know).
For the other side of the coin, order your hands from the biggest pots won, and ask why did you win those big pots. When we drag a big pot it's easy to just pat ourselves on the back and move on, thinking our great play is responsible for it. But maybe you were just lucky? Maybe there was a way (perhaps by applying barreling more effectively?) that you could have made it an even bigger pot?
Beyond this I really can't say much. I just don't have the time to do all this good stuff the way I would like to. Just remember, search for the questions first, then search for the answers. If you are having too much trouble finding answers, it's because you haven't asked the right questions.
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9:15 am
November 15, 2009
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Sh0e
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Appreciate your advice and yeah… I stay away from 2+2 cuz of the "chaff"  . One thing that I feel like though, when I analyze the biggest pots won/lost thing: it seems (to me) that most of it is the result of cold deck &/or bad luck. I don't know if I'm right or wrong there, but that's the way it seems.
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8:16 am
November 16, 2009
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mullethaiku
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Sh0e said:
One thing that I feel like though, when I analyze the biggest pots won/lost thing: it seems (to me) that most of it is the result of cold deck &/or bad luck. I don't know if I'm right or wrong there, but that's the way it seems.
This is usually a good sign Sh0e. It means you are making the right plays for the most part. In HEM's Hand Replayer, it should give you the %/odds of winning the hand on each street. If for the most part you were a 70-95% favoriite on most hands, but just get sucked out, don't sweat it too much. That is mostly just bad luck. Doing this really helped my tilt control. I took some comfort in knowing I played it right and got my money in way ahead. But you still can find leaks in how you played the hand.
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4:39 pm
December 28, 2009
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pythoneer
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One kind of analysis with HEM that is often ignored, is this: Why was I playing at that table?
What I mean is this: look at the stats of the other players, using the HUD in the replayer. If there are not enough fish or wet noodles, but only 20/18 players, why were you playing there? You need to get up from such tables and find better ones. Find tables were the players have a big gap between VPIP and PFR.
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3:06 pm
March 8, 2010
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Hitman
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JJS said:
mullet – please stop answering this troll, you are not going to convince him. He is just going to say yes, it is all just a scam, they are all fakes, and then he will require you to prove that it is not a scam before he will believe you – it's standard troll operating procedure, so just ignore him.
Or, answer trolls like this correctly. The assertion is that no one can win long term, which is obviously ignorant at best, since there are players that make a good living at this game. But really the only thing needed to prove guys like this wrong is evidence of at least 1 long term winner. Just give him a graph of one and you're done. There's plenty available. Here's a couple of the more well known ones.
http://www.pokertableratings.c…..h/Nanonoko
http://www.pokertableratings.c…..eatherass9
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6:23 pm
March 8, 2010
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JJS
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Hitman said:
Or, answer trolls like this correctly.
Welcome back Hitman, I'm glad to see you are still posting.
Unfortunately, there is no "correct" way to answer this guy. Sunny already posted irrefutable proof in another thread, but this guy just ignores it.
In response to your graphs, he would just say that the people posting them are simply on a winning streak and if they play "long enough" they will give their winnings back eventually. I'm sure he'd even say this about Leatherass and his millions of hands.
I think AASooted said it best in the other thread – something happened to this guy in the past, perhaps he had a gambling problem himself, and now he just cannot see this objectively any more. He thinks he's on a mission, and he doesn't know that this forum is the least likely place where he will find people that need gambling addition help. I'm not saying there aren't any, but there surely are much more at the craps tables and the slot machines. Most gambling addicts are not going to pay $100 for an e-book when they could take that money to the casino and gamble with it.
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