Small Stakes No-Limit Hold'em

Post edited 7:09 am – February 1, 2010 by GalacticRewind

I am not sure why my first post above looks like that.  I took out all of the html that was causing problems.  Here is the same post again.

My SPR is 5.1, and the target SPR for TPTK is 4.5 but can get as high as 7 for a loose player (as low as 2 for a tight player).  So I think I should commit here.

8.36% of my stack has gone in before the flop.

But the problem I have is that maybe I should commit only if I do all the betting, and if I am raised like I am here, then I do not know what I should do.

I do not have enough hands on this player for any good stats.  But if I did, would there be any stats that I should look at to see how passive he is, and if they reach a certain point then I need to fold?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($45.50)
BB ($58.50)
UTG ($197.80)
UTG+1 ($391.45)
MP1 ($391.45)
MP2 ($201.60)
MP3 ($45.10)
CO ($74.05)
Hero (Button) ($125.60)

Preflop: Hero is Button with ,
UTG bets $3, 5 folds, Hero raises to $10.50, 2 folds, UTG calls $7.50

Flop: ($22.50) , , (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $11, UTG raises to $28, Hero calls $17

Turn: ($78.50) (2 players)
UTG bets $31, Hero ??

When I saw the flop I was very happy.  But there is more than just a flop here in this hand.  Opponent has check-raised me, and then continued to pound on the turn.  The problem that I have with committing is that my opponent can see the ace on the flop just like I can see it, but he chose to be aggressive anyways.

Say that you are correct, "he has Ax and thinks you have a big pair (QQ, KK) that would leave him ahead."  So would he check-raise?  Maybe, but I think he would prefer to just call.  That allows me to bluff again with my KK or QQ.  Too much pressure when all I have is KK or QQ, and I am gone.

I also think that IF I had stats on him that indicated he was passive, then I would have even more reason to fold.  I would like to know more about what stats I need to look at in order to make a decision like that.  See the discussion in this post here:

http://smallstakesnolimitholde…..ment-help/

If it is possible for QQ to not commit on a 764 flop, then I think the same principles apply here.  I am not sure that I should commit.

I don't think there is anyway you can fold here. First of all, not being critical as I do this myself often enough, I don't think you planned ahead. If you don't have enough hands/stats against this player, facing UTG raise, I just call. Or, if you do raise, not bad play, don't think you can plan on folding with A-high relativelly dry board.

Your only worries are AA or a set. Both are realtively unlikely. I would say more probable is AQ, AJ, maybe even AT suited if loose player. You have shown no aggression since the continuation bet and you slowed down to the check-raise.

You have no idea what this guy is thinking. Some players ALWAYS think your are full of it when you are aggressive on the button. He could put you on weaker A or JJ or QQ or whatever. Since you have shown no signs of quitting, I also think he makes a bigger turn bet, maybe more like 2/3 or 3/4 if he is strong. He is not putting you on a draw and thinks you have a made hand you are trying to limp into showdown with.

It looks to me like he expected you to fold on the CR, and you didn't. Now he has put himself in the "bad place" OOP. I think the turn is a weak feeler bet or keep it cheap as possible to showdown bet. If  the board had AQ or AJ on it, I would feel a bit more queasy.

Call or raise turn bet? hmmm. To me that's the only choice here. You can never be sure, right? I know it's scary but I think I make a small raise here, maybe min or 1 1/2x. If he is a weaker player, more likely to stick with had with the hit-my-kicker dream alive. If he folds, don't think you would have gotten much more on  the river. If he calls, most likely will check river to you, you can check or go for small vb (what I would do). If he shoves, yuck. On second thought, since you have no reads (hands/stats) maybe just call keep the pot small..  But again, don't think folding is part of the quandry here. It's either how do I get most value or how do I keep showdown cheap, but not fold.

Final thought, I still think turn bet is weak for a guy facing an apparent made hand. On the flop it could be a trick, but here, and with the action and the stack sizes, I think it's a weak probe or keep it cheap and would proceed with my read. I change my mind, I would raise the turn and be committed , right or wrong.  If he hit some unlikely hand or was  tricky with AA, kudos. The worst that can happen is you get stacked. I'm only proposing this track because you don't have stats. Without them, I'm just not willing to give that much credit.