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7:42 pm
June 22, 2009
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QTip
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I'd love to hear a bit more about this. Over how many hands, graphs, anything…
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8:20 pm
June 22, 2009
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Sunny Mehta
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hm, i'm not sure if i remember exactly how many hands it was over, but maybe 30k-ish?
in part i was experimenting with some different stuff, some of which definitely encouraged variance. (i wanna say my sd/100 was in the 60's during that time). and partly, as i mentioned in another thread, i don't necessarily play to maximize winrate.
but having said all that, it was pretty ridiculous how bad i ran. at one point i plugged hands into a couple of those poker equity calculators, and during one run i was ~20 buyins below expectation just in all-in pots! the variance is crazy in online games. it really is.
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6:55 am
June 23, 2009
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QTip
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4:03 am
June 25, 2009
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id
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I'm down 13 buyins in the last 20k hands in all in ev.
Varience is something that has to be experienced to be believed. I can well see 40 buyin downswings being 'normal' over very large sample sizes.
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6:49 am
June 25, 2009
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jdk050507
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This was possibly one of the best parts of the book, for me anyway.
I remember (this had to be a few years ago) Ed Miller had a post one time on his website telling a new player "there is only one thing worse than a new player running bad……..and that's running good".
If you don't realize that these downswings can happen, it can really discourage you, especially if you're a new player. When I was new I became so distraught over a 10 buy-in downswing that it made me quit for a few months. I wasn't even playing too big!…..I had plenty of bank for the game…….but the downswing made me think I was doing something wrong.
Its very important for new players to realize that these downswings happen! I myself really appreciate this information being published about Sunny's downswing. These authors really hold nothing back!
-jdk
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6:54 am
June 25, 2009
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QTip
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Well, the biggest problem for a new player is he generally has very little clue as to whether it's a downswing or he's just making poor decisions. For most players, I think they overestimate the perecieved edge over the other players as well. They may not recognize their C game very well and play for stretches when they're giving their opponent's an edge, etc.
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10:21 am
June 25, 2009
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jdk050507
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QTip said:
They may not recognize their C game very well and play for stretches when they're giving their opponent's an edge
You sound like Tommy Angelo. That's a good thing!
-jdk
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10:38 am
June 25, 2009
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Pete
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Here's a snippet I saved from Stox coach code7654321 concerning all-in ev:
"The issue with EV graphs:
You can trick yourself into thinking your running below ev by always putting enough money in you have equity to call 33% on a draw or 20% on turn to hit where your EV is breakeven with the play but the calculation of all-in EV won't factor this in. "
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