1-3 live game. Villain has 130bb. I have him covered.
Villain is named Kenny. Kenny is a regular , plays higher sometimes as do I. Kenny is a solid player and can get quite tricky against the right opponent. We have played together before. Kenny is a better player than me. I do not fear him, but I rather not have him at my table. Also, even when I was live all the time, Kenny plays more hours than I do. I got back on line first of April and have not been to casino 4x in last 3 months. ( So little rusty with live reads/rhythm).
I haven’t played a hand for a couple of rounds, last hand I won a big pot with KK. One limper to me 4 off the button, I raise to $16 with AcQc (going to speak in dollars instead of bb’s this one time, that odd big blind makes accuracy tedious.) Kenny calls in sb, limper folds.
(Pot: 38) Flop comes QdTc5d .
Checked to me , I bet 35. Kenny check-raises me to 75. I immediately suspect him of slow playing AA or KK but know he could do this with JJ or KJ as well, sets are possible but unlikely I think. If I call raise, and I did, I know that Kenny knows that I have at least a queen. I know he could even check-raise me with air because he knows I ‘m c-betting this flop with a lot of holdings, including air myself. So I call because I don’t want to get pot-committed but feel folding would be ridiculous at this point.
Kenny will check the turn here, I have seen him make a move and follow with a check before. So when I call I do so with the plan of seeing what happens and if he makes a big bet turn bet, I’m folding, bluff or not.
( Was just calling here a bad play? Especially since I’m thinking of dumping the turn if pressured? )
(Pot: 188) turn comes 3c.
Kenny bets $100. He has $200 left behind. Now I know if I call and hit the flush, he is never going to put me on a backdoor flush draw. I have played with him enough to know if a club comes he is still value-betting the river and I will get the whole stack with a what’s-left raise. So I’m getting 4.8 to 1. I figure either queen is most likely an out, if he has a set , so be it. I figure the 3 A’s as one out at best. I feel confident in my call here,but comments are welcome.
(Pot: 388) river comes a blank
Kenny bets $100. Crap ! Of course I knew this was given almost no matter what came, maybe not if a queen. So here I am, getting 4.88 to 1. I feel like I’m more certain than even those high pot odds that I’m beat. I know you have to make laydowns, but almost 5-1, am I even good enough to be that sure. Like most players, myself included, these nice sized river bets are usually just what they seem. But then I also figure, Kenny knows that I know that he knows I have a queen . And he’s leaving 100 behind as he bets 100. I know that he knows that I know that it looks like he wants to get called. Unlikely that this bet is not real, but, 4.9 : 1. I call.
( Was this a bad call talking myself into pot’s too big to fold? And did I outhink myself here with all the I know he knows I know….)
And finally my main question. Should I have checked the flop? I thought about it and in retrospect, of course, I should have. But there were a couple of draws out there and I hate giving free cards. But on the other hand, I know Kenny will pounce on weakness. So checking keeps pot smaller but if he Pounces hard on the turn, now I ‘m lost when we go into river. In fairness to myself, I was going to fold to serious action on turn if I hadn’t picked up draw. But, was my mistake an early one that compounded itself? I feel checking flop would have been ok but felt like bet was ok too. But should I have bet smaller on flop? Same weakness theory applies , though. I don’t want to be chumming the water with TPTK against a good player. What should my main thoughts be here ? How much better would have a check or smaller bet been here?
Whew, sorry so long. All comments, criticisms, and ridicule welcome.
Thanks, JC