Small Stakes No-Limit Hold'em

Post edited 6:11 pm – June 27, 2009 by Matt Flynn

Keep in mind we usually want to take down the pot preflop.  In usual game circumstances, that is the most profitable expectation (when we don't hold a premium hand).

If opponent calls often preflop and folds quite often postflop, you can increase overall profit by raising more preflop.

Critical point: The c-bet should be small.  Start at third-pot or half-pot.  Go lower if opponent will let you.

Regarding profit, c-bet size, and how big the preflop pot is: This is slightly trickier than it may seem at first glance.  Overall if a half-pot c-bet is truly profitable (meaning you expect to end the hand with more money than you started), then in general a bigger preflop pot = more profit.  Yes when you lose the half-pot c-bet you lose more, but overall profit rises.  For example:

Say you win with a half-pot c-bet 70% of the time.

Small pot:  Raise to 3bb, big blind calls.  Pot is 6.5  C-bet 3.25 and you net 0.7(6.5+3.25)=6.825  minus the 3.25 c-bet minus your 3bb preflop raise for 0.575bb expected profit.

Big pot: Raise to 4.5bb, big blind calls. Pot is 9.5. C-bet 4.75 and you net 0.7(9.5+4.75)=9.975 minus the flop c-bet 4.75 minus the initial raise 4.5 = 0.725 expected profit.

Key point: When c-bet the flop shows an OVERALL profit, raising more preflop against an opponent who calls preflop then plays fit-or-fold postflop usually increases profit.

Key point: Your opponent has to fold a lot for this to show an overall profit, so don't do this unless you're sure he (1) calls far more often than he raises preflop, and (2) folds a TON of hands postflop.

Minor point: You actually do a little better than the above number suggest, because sometimes when he calls or checkraises your c-bet, you will have a big hand.  You do not have to pay off his top-pair hands since he folds weaker pairs and plays draws passively.  So you know top pair isn't a big hand if he plays back.  When he flops a set and you flop top pair, you won't lose much.  When he flops top pair and you flop a set, he'll lose a lot.  This is Tommy Angelo's reciprocality concept.

Back to critical point: This only works when opponent folds a ton to smaller bets.  To give you an idea, take the same pots and use a third-pot c-bet size:

Small pot: 3bb raise then half-pot c-bet vs. opponent who folds 70% to a flop bet yields 0.575bb in immediate expectation.  3bb raise then third-pot c-bet IF he will still fold 70% of the time yields 0.9bb in immediate expectation.

Big pot: 4.5bb raise c-betting half-pot yields 0.725 immediate EV. With third-pot c-bet and same 70% folding by opponent it is 1.2bb in immediate EV.

Key point: It is really easy to make money against opponents who fold often to small c-bets.

Key point: Expectation goes up a good bit if the small blind is the caller, because the preflop pot has 0.5bb more in it.  BUT, for this to work the big blind must be tight.

Key point: This works awesomely against an out of position player who raises then calls 3-bets often but folds frequenlty on the flop.  The additional 1.5bb in blinds helps, plus the bloated preflop pot helps.  BUT it is even more important to have blinds that fold very often when the button three-bets.

Matt